Re7 Capital

After Bitcoin falls at least 50% from its all-time high, then closes back above -30%, how often and how fast does it make a new ATH? Live price, every past case, and where the current cycle stands.

See the data ↓ Every case ↓

BTC ATH Countdown

ATH: highest intraday high to date.
Setup: an intraday low at least 50% below the ATH.
Cross: the first daily close at or above 70% of the ATH after the setup.
Excluded: crosses within 60 days of the ATH (Dec 2013 and Jan 2014).
Hit: a new ATH before any intraday low below the setup low.

Snapshot

BTC / USD

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Drawdown from ATH

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Hit rate

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Longest wait to ATH

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Median days to ATH

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Price for -30% cross

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Price (log) ATH Drawdown -30% line Cross → new ATH Cross → new low first

Every recovery above -30% after a -50% drop

Closed above -30%	Low before	Cross price	+7d	+30d	+75d	Worst low after	Outcome	New ATH

Bitstamp daily high, low and close from Aug 2011; blockchain.com daily average before that (one price per day). Recent days and the live price come from Coinbase. Not a forecast.